A Trend?


Can we call three days in a row a trend? Ok, we won’t get carried away with the three day rally we have just experienced, but it sure seemed to come at a good time. Sentiment had gotten so negative, the number of bears out there was rivaling the negativity that we saw at the market bottoms in March of 2003 and March of 2009. Of course, remember that counter trend rallies are sharp and quick. All the problems that we had last Thursday haven’t all disappeared in the last three trading sessions. But perhaps share prices had discounted much of the bad news. Only time will tell.

For the day, stocks rallied early and often and the bulls were able to hold on to the lofty gains. By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 257 points to close at 16,453. The S&P 500 was up 31 points to close at 1926. Gold was up a fraction to trade at $1,208 per ounce, while oil was up $1.59 to trade at $30.63 per barrel WTI.

The Fed minutes from the last FOMC meeting were released today, and as expected, the Fed is concerned about recent global economic and market developments. But, handicapping whether we’ll see additional rate hikes this year is really missing the point. If they are data dependent, and the data improves, then expect rates hikes. If the data continues to deteriorate, especially globally, then the Fed “should” delay any further rate hikes until such hikes are warranted. In the meantime, let’s see if this rally has legs.

Have a nice evening everyone.

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