Friends

 

Just a few observations this morning from the road. First, the heartache that our nation feels this morning after the murders at the elementary school in Uvalde, Texas is immeasurable. We have almost become numb to it which might be the saddest thing of all.

 

As for the markets, after dipping officially into bear market territory last Friday, the S&P 500 did recover some and move higher so far this week. But as we have noted, rallies have been short lived and often less than convincing. Perhaps we can get a push higher that is more convincing, but we shall see.

 

Interestingly, the bond market has rallied (prices higher, yields lower) which is sending a signal that some smart money is betting on a slowing economy, one that might actually be in recession already. That the bond market is rallying when stocks fall is a change that makes some sense. On down days, money coming out of stocks is seeking safety in government bonds. But, as mentioned the louder signal might be that the bond market already believes we are in a recessionary environment.

 

All eyes are on the today’s release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting earlier this month. We’ll be watching to see the commentary on financial conditions and inflation and whether the Fed suspects that the economy is already contracting.

 

We’ll keep you informed as to how the rest of the week unfolds.

 

Have a nice day everyone.

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