The Rally And The Setup


The negative economic data continues to pile up, with today’s Industrial Production number being the latest disappointment (consumer sentiment did however hold steady). Nevertheless, stocks continued to climb (are we climbing the wall of worry once again?), despite all the negative news, not the least of which is the weather. The surprising rise in the market averages has the S&P 500 very close once again to the all-time highs. Here is the setup.

If the rally in the S&P falters without making new highs, the bears will be screaming “double top” and point out that new highs could not be achieved and that we are destined to enter a new pullback/correction phase.  On the other hand, if the S&P can get decisively above 1850, then the bears may be forced to capitulate (remember, last year was a difficult year for the bears) and the bulls could be the beneficiaries of some short covering/panic buying. Next week will be interesting indeed.

As for today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 126 points to finish the day at 16,154. The S&P 500 was up 8 points to close at 1838. Gold continued to climb as the precious metal was up $18 to trade at $1318 per ounce, while oil was down $.06 to trade at $100.29 per barrel WTI.

Remember, Monday is Presidents Day and the markets will be closed. We’ll be back at it on Tuesday.

Have a great 3 day weekend everyone.

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